NEW YORK’S CAVIAR BUMP GONE BUST!
The bump craze received a healthy amount of reporting. A shining feature in the New York Times characterized the specialty as a “decadent and naughty way to consume the pricey delicacy.” But a particularly intriguing parallel was drawn by Juliana Kaplan of Business Insider. Namely that caviar bumps may have been the latest iteration of the youngest generations hearkening back to the last ’20s. While Kaplan’s parallel is insightful, if not a bit overdone, the real kicker comes at the very end. “Just don’t Google what came after the roaring 20s.” We all know by now that the 1920s were coined by luxury. Americans had extra money to spend, and so they did. Ready-to-wear clothing, electric refrigerators, et al. But the increased spending of the 1920s was met with the longest recession of all time. Which begs the question, was our increased interest in licking caviar off of our (hopefully sanitized) knuckles a sign that we are headed towards a recession?
The comparison between the roaring 20s and the 2020s has already made its rounds on the Internet. Although the theory has particularly gripped TikTokers, it’s mostly been disproven by economists and historians. What we do know is that we are experiencing something a bit more “run-of-the-mill,” the business cycle. A process whereby increased spending (a boom) is met with a subsequent economic downturn (a bust). These booms and busts are a necessary part of any market-driven economy, i.e. an economy where there is no government intervention or market regulation. Basically, we all have to ride the waves of the business cycle if we want the luxury of choosing between 15 different diet coke flavors. Boom cycles are times when there is a surplus of jobs, economic growth, growth of business and industries, and enough money in circulation. You just got offered another part-time job, your crochet socks are finally selling out on Depop, and maybe you have a hankering for a caviar bump on a night out. A bust, on the other hand, is a period of economic struggle coupled with the scarcity of jobs, losses in investments, and economic decline. The Whole Foods hot bar is barren; cue the tumbleweeds. Not all economic downturns turn into recession. A recession, by definition, is when a country experiences two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
It’s almost been a year since summer 2022, and things have changed. Carmen, the general manager at Tokyo Record Bar, offers some insights into the current caviar bump market. When asked about the special over email she wrote, “We don’t offer caviar bumps anymore…I don’t know if it was before my time. It was probably because of COVID. Everyone needed a pivot…to be honest not too many people ask for it these days.” According to Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, consumers sense a recession is right around the corner and are starting to behave like it. They are becoming unhappier by the minute and are pinching pennies at the cash register. More individuals are working, have some savings, and are even receiving wage hikes. But squeezed by higher inflation and rising interest rates, they are curbing spending.